At two events 18-months apart, teams of suits, geeks, and wonks (industry experts, technologists, public policy analysts) brainstormed and scored what could lead to failure of NSTIC, an international effort to create an identity ecosystem. The whitepaper at http://pde.cc/nsticrisks recaps the long list of potential threats, a shorter list of preventive strategies, compares the 2011 and 2012 events, and names the two greatest threats: poor user experience (harming trust, adoption, use) and imbalance among the forces tying the identity ecosystem together.